Since the outbreak of the novel coronavirus in 2020, 97 million additional people have fallen below the poverty line. Those facing acute food insecurity increased by 148 million people. In combination with threats from climate change, supply chain issues and shortages have threatened food systems throughout the world. These factors have catastrophic consequences on the most vulnerable countries, including many in sub-Saharan Africa.
The Russian invasion in Ukraine has exacerbated the food security crisis. Wheat importing countries throughout Africa face food shortages and an increased risk of famine. Ukraine, often referred to as a “breadbasket” due to its significant grain exports, is likely to cut annual exports of wheat by 58% in 2022. According to the UN, 25 African countries import more than a third of their wheat from either the Russian Federation or Ukraine. In addition to decreased wheat exports, the Russian Federation – the world’s largest exporter of fertilizers – temporarily suspended fertilizer exports in response to sanctions. As a result, farmers throughout Africa are already struggling to access fertilizers due to increased prices, shipping issues (closure of Ukrainian ports, maritime trade in the Black Sea), and foreign exchange problems.
The economic impacts on wheat and fertilizer supply chains are felt globally. According to the FAO, cereal and fertilizer prices increased by 48% and 35%, respectively. In the short-term, Somalia and Benin – countries that import all their wheat supply from Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation – are likely to experience a food and hunger crisis (see top Ukrainian/Russian wheat importers below).
Indirectly, however, numerous countries in sub-Saharan Africa that heavily import grain and fertilizer products are likely to experience increased food insecurity. The CIA World Factbook identifies six countries in sub-Saharan Africa where wheat is a top import (Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau, Mauritania, Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania) and four countries where fertilizers are a top import (Djibouti, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) (see map below).
According to the FAO, food insecurity in all countries noted but Malawi has increased since 2014 (data for Djibouti and Guinea-Bissau was unavailable). In sub-Saharan Africa overall, food insecurity has increased by 8.5% since 2014. Even prior to the pandemic and the Russian Invasion in Ukraine, the IMF estimated 60.3% of the region experienced moderate to severe food insecurity.
Threats to UN Programs
Notably, the UN World Food Programme sources 50% of their wheat from Ukraine, effecting programs that feed 125 million people and threatening existing efforts to decrease food poverty in many sub-Saharan African countries. Currently, less than ¼ UNWFP food is produced locally, making UN programs reliant on external sources, rather than focused on empowering local farmers and developing sustainable solutions.
Threats from Climate Change
Increased temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and extreme weather specifically threaten food and water security on the continent. In Somalia, climatic changes resulted in drought even prior to the Russian invasion, raising alarm bells of severe hunger threats among international organizations. And while policy prior to the pandemic and the Ukrainian invasion was moving in an overall positive direction to address carbon emissions and fossil fuel use, “the significant increase in oil and gas prices may shift investment back into extractive industries and fossil fuel-based energy generation,” according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development. The return to fossil fuel investment would continue to have a severely negative and disproportionate impact on sub-Saharan countries, exacerbating the issue. In fact, sub-Saharan Africa is the region most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and already experiencing environmental changes.
Threats of Increased Violence
Not only does food insecurity contribute to stunted growth, malnutrition, and increased mortality, it is tied to an increase in civil unrest. During the 2008 financial crisis, food scarcity contributed to the Arab Spring uprising. Access to food is a fundamental human right, and a lack of access is a threat to livelihoods and political stability. Increased threats of violence pose future problems for supply chains and increase the risk of extremist groups, which pose foreign policy issues for the United States.
Tackling the Crisis
While food insecurity is also a growing challenge in the domestic United States due to the pandemic and inflation, in the short-term it is in the interest of policymakers, the United Nations, and the USAID to encourage alternate wheat producing countries (like Argentina) to support ongoing food aid programs. Additionally, though the situation may pressure countries to produce more oil, policymakers must encourage green innovation and improve local food systems. In order to strengthen the food systems of sub-Saharan countries and address both instability and climate change, new technologies and traditional agriculture knowledge must be at the forefront of UN and US missions.
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